Methodology

RoycoPharos rates Dawn yield tranches risk-first. It models each tranche in three layers, then leads with two independent numbers: a Safety score for capital downside and an Opportunity score for risk-adjusted yield.

Methodology versionroyco-opportunity-v0.7Higher Royco scores are better. Pharos base-asset grades remain visible as source inputs.

Every tranche carries two Royco scores. Read them as a pair. The Safety score answers how protected the tranche seat is after base-asset, exposure, and tranche-structure risk. The Opportunity scoreanswers whether the yield pays fairly for that risk. Pharos' own letter grade stays attached to the base asset only.

The gap between the two numbers is the signal. A Junior with low Safety but high Opportunity is telling you the yield may be paying for real first-loss risk. The sections below build up each score from the data, with a visual model for every step.

The two scores

Royco Safety Score measures tranche capital risk. It uses the Pharos base Safety Score as Layer 1, subtracts a bounded curated exposure haircut in Layer 2, then applies Layer 3 tranche mechanics: Senior cushion credit and bounded structure penalties. Pharos rates the base asset; this Royco view rates the seat.

Safety formula
clamp(round(pharosBaseScore - exposureHaircut + seniorCushionCredit - trancheStructureHaircut), 0, 100)

Royco Opportunity Score measures reward per unit of risk. It haircuts APY by the safety fraction, then normalizes the result to 0..100. A high-yield Junior can earn a strong Opportunity score while its Safety score honestly stays low. It is a transparent heuristic, not a Sharpe ratio.

Opportunity formula
clamp(round((APY x (Safety / 100) ^ gamma) / 12% * 100), 0, 100)

Each score as a flow from inputs to a Royco number

Score bands

These bands are the color system behind the numeric badges. A Safety score is calibrated 0 to 100. Opportunity starts from risk-adjusted net yield and is normalized to 0 to 100 for display, while the yield bands remain available for calibration and API compatibility.

The three-layer model

Each tranche is built from three layers. Layer 1 is the vault input and its Pharos score. Layer 2 is the exposure: the strategy, the yield source, services and protocols used, and what breaks them. Layer 3 is the tranche structure: your seat in the waterfall, the buffer beneath you, and utilization.

  • Layer 1 Base asset: Pharos Safety Score and grade are shown verbatim.
  • Layer 2 Exposure: curated service/protocol score, converted to a bounded haircut with a 16-point cap.
  • Layer 3 Tranche structure: neutral score 70, plus Senior cushion credit, minus bounded structure haircut.

The Pharos score is not a ceiling. A well-buffered Senior can score above the whole vault because Junior capital absorbs losses first. A Junior can score below the vault because it is the first-loss seat.

Vertical cross-section, vault input to tranche seat

How Senior and Junior differ

Senior tranche: junior-buffered exposure. Senior can still lose value if losses exceed the Junior buffer, market mechanics fail, data is stale, or the underlying asset deteriorates.

Junior tranche: first-loss exposure. The first-loss term is buffer-scaled, so the thinner the buffer beneath it, the heavier the term, and utilization bites earlier and harder. Junior's compensation for first loss is its yield, which is rewarded in the Opportunity score, not double-penalized in Safety.

Worked example: which seat absorbs losses first

SeniorJuniorfirst-losslossesdrawdown
Losses eat the Junior buffer from the bottom first. The Senior seat is exposed only after the Junior buffer is gone. Junior's pay for taking that first loss is its yield, rewarded in Opportunity, not in Safety.

Tranche-structure factors

The haircut is built from these factors. The total is bounded by a per-side cap and combined with diminishing returns, so penalties saturate rather than stack linearly.

  • Market status: normal, Protection mode, unhealthy, or critical.
  • Junior first-loss, buffer-scaled: the thinner the buffer beneath, the heavier the term.
  • Utilization: saturating pressure against the limit; Junior feels it earlier and harder.
  • Coverage: current Junior buffer vs required buffer.
  • Tranche TVL: below $100k, $250k, or $1M adds liquidity-friction terms.
  • Venue tier, drawdown, access friction, withdrawal friction, Junior redemption delay.

Structure weights

These weights are rendered directly from the scoring constants the engine uses, so this table cannot drift from the computed scores. Utilization and the Junior first-loss term are curve-based and shown as ranges.

FactorSeniorJunior
Status: Protection mode58
Status: unhealthy914
Status: critical1318
Senior cushion credit (coverage-scaled)0–320
Junior first-loss (buffer-scaled)08–16
Utilization pressure (saturating)0–70–14
Coverage below required (base)86
Tranche TVL < $100k57
Venue tier: high56
Withdrawal underlying-dependent12
Access restricted / KYC23
Junior redemption delay03
Per-side haircut cap1428

Penalty taxonomy

Every factor belongs to one of four risk categories and carries a severity tier. Severity orders the factors from a quiet note to a critical deduction, and it is the color you see on a tranche's breakdown.

Band tables

A given score maps to the same internal band every snapshot. These bands drive color and compatibility fields; the product-facing Royco outputs are the numeric scores.

Safety bands

GradeScore ≥
A70
B55
C40
D25
E10
F0

Opportunity bands (net yield %)

GradeNet yield ≥
A12%
B8%
C5%
D3%
E1.5%
F0%

Missing data, freshness, and limitations

Missing market status, coverage, utilization, tranche TVL, APY observations, or reviewed venue/exposure data adds an uncertainty term and sets the row to low confidence. Observed zero APY is computed as zero-yield, not treated as missing. Missing Pharos vault Safety Score, or an invalid tranche side, produces NR rather than a silent F.

RoycoPharos is informational only and is not financial, investment, legal, tax, or credit-rating advice. It does not guarantee principal, APY, liquidity, tranche coverage, redemption, source accuracy, or future market behavior. Access/KYC indicators are not legal determinations. Data may be delayed, incomplete, or wrong.